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ارزیابی عملکرد مدل IHACRES در شبیه سازی رواناب (مطالعه موردی: حوضه رودخانه افین)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

کامبیز محمّدی 1
حسین خزیمه نزاد 2
مهدی امیرآبادی زاده 2

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه علوم و مهندسی آب دانشکده کشاورزی دانشگاه بیرجند، بیرجند، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه علوم و مهندسی آب دانشکده کشاورزی دانشگاه بیرجند، بیرجند، ایران.

https://doi.org/10.22077/jaaq.2025.9090.1106
چکیده
مدلسازی بارش - رواناب یکی از کلیدی‌ترین ابزار در علم هیدرولوژی برای یافتن خصوصیاتی از سیلاب نظیر میزان و زمان رسیدن به دبی اوج است. در این تحقیق مدل IHACRES در قالب بسته نرم افزاری Hydromad و در بستر R، برای شبیه سازی جریان حوضه رودخانه افین قاین مورد استفاده قرار‌گرفت و عملکرد آن با روش‌ ARMAX در شبیه سازی رواناب با مورد بررسی قرارگرفت. برای انجام شبیه‌سازی با استفاده از مدل فوق، داده‌های مربوط به بارش، دبی جریان وتبخیردر مقیاس ماهانه طی سال‌های 1993 تا 2019 مورد استفاده قرارگرفت. واسنجی پارامترهای مدل IHACRES با استفاده ازتابع هدف به منظور حداکثر‌سازی مقدار شاخص نش – ساتکلیف انجام پذیرفت. واسنجی مقادیر دبی مشاهداتی با استفاده از معیارهای ارزیابی Ns وR^2 انجام پذیرفت. در این مرحله محدوده مناسب پارامترهای مدل تعیین گردید و با استفاده از تابع هدف حداکثرسازی مقدار نش-ساتکلیف، مقادیر بهینه پارامترهای مدل تعیین گردید. مقادیر این دو معیار بترتیب برابر 79/0 و 85/0 بود که نشان دهنده‌ عملکرد قابل قبول مدل در شبیه‌سازی مقادیر دبی مشاهداتی در خروجی حوضه می باشد. در مرحله صحّت سنجی مقادیر معیارهای ارزیابی به ترتیب برابر 54/0 و 64/0 برآورد شد که نشان از عملکرد مطلوب مدل دارد. در مجموع نتایج تحقیق، نشان دهنده این موضوع است که نتایج حاصل از مدل IHACRES در منطقه مورد مطالعه، با استفاده از روش ARMAX عملکرد دقیقی داشته است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

اژه های کلیدی: شبیه سازی بارش - رواناب
مدل IHACRES
واسنجی
حوضه آبریز افین
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Performance evaluation of the IHACRES model in runoff simulation (case study: Afin River Basin)

نویسندگان English

Kambiz Mohammadie 1
Hossien Khozeymehnezhad 2
Mahdi Amirabadizadeh 2
1 Department, of Water Engineering Faculty of Agriculture, University of Birjand, Birjand.Iran.
2 Department, of Water Engineering Faculty of Agriculture, University of Birjand, Birjand.Iran.
چکیده English

Rainfall-runoff modeling is one of the key tools in hydrology to determine flood characteristics such as the amount and time of peak discharge.The IHACRES model parameters were calibrated using the objective function to maximize the Nash-Sutcliffe index. The simulation values of peak flow rate and peak flow time were calibrated and validated using the Ns and R2 evaluation criteria. In the ARMAX method, it was 0.79 and 0.85, which indicates the acceptable performance of simulating peak discharge values and the time to reach peak discharge in the ARMAX method. In the validation stage, the values of the evaluation criteria in the ARMAX method were estimated to be 0.54 and 0.64, respectively, which indicates that the ARMAX method has a desirable performance. Overall, the research results indicate that the results obtained from the IHACRES model in the study area, using the ARMAX method, have had an accurate performance.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Keywords: Precipitation-runoff simulation
IHACRES model
calibration
Afin watershed
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