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بررسی عملکرد مدل‌های CMIP6 در برآورد دما و بارش برای دشت مشهد و پیش‌نگری تغییرات آن‌ها تحت سناریوهای SSP تا پایان قرن حاضر

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

مهناز مزروعی 1
قدرت الله محمدی 1
حسین حسن پور درویشی 2
حمیدرضا ربیعی فر 1

1 گروه مهندسی عمران، واحد تهران جنوب، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.

2 گروه مدیریت منابع آب، واحد شهرقدس، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شهرقدس، ایران.

https://doi.org/10.22077/jaaq.2026.11675.1151
چکیده
ارزیابی تغییرات آینده دما و بارش در مقیاس محلی، برای برنامه‌ریزی منابع آب و سازگاری با تغییر اقلیم ضروری است. این پژوهش با هدف ارزیابی عملکرد مدل‌های اقلیمی فاز ششم پروژه مقایسه مدل‌های جفت‌شده (CMIP6) و پیش‌نگری دما و بارش دشت مشهد انجام شد. داده‌های روزانه مشاهده‌ای ایستگاه‌های همدید مشهد و گلمکان و خروجی هفت مدل گردش عمومی جو در دوره مرجع 2014–1990 بررسی شد. پس از تجمیع سالانه، مدل‌ها با جذر میانگین مربعات خطا، اریبی میانگین و ضریب همبستگی پیرسون ارزیابی و مدل برتر بر پایه کمترین خطا و اریبی و بیشترین همبستگی انتخاب شد. خروجی مدل منتخب با نرم‌افزار CMhyd و روش تغییر عامل دلتا، تحت مسیرهای «راه میانی» (SSP2-4.5) و «توسعه مبتنی بر سوخت‌های فسیلی» (SSP5-8.5) برای دوره‌های ۲۰50–۲۰26، ۲۰75–۲۰51 و ۲100–۲076 ریزمقیاس‌نمایی شد. مدل MPI-ESM1-2-HR بهترین عملکرد کلی را داشت؛ در مشهد و گلمکان، همبستگی بارش به‌ترتیب ۰٫۷۸ و ۰٫۷۷، خطا ۱۲٫۴۶ و ۱۰٫۳۴ میلی‌متر و اریبی ۹٫۳۴ و ۸٫۸۷ میلی‌متر بود. برای دما، همبستگی ۰٫۸۳ و ۰٫۸۰، خطا ۲٫۲۳ و ۲٫۱۱ و اریبی ۱٫۰۱ و ۱٫۲۳ درجه سانتی‌گراد به دست آمد. در دوره دور، دما تحت SSP2-4.5 حدود ۳ درجه و تحت SSP5-8.5 در برخی بخش‌ها تا ۵٫۶ درجه سلسیوس افزایش یافت. بارش سالانه نیز به‌ترتیب ۴٫۴ و ۸٫۸ درصد افزایش نشان داد و بیشترین تغییرات در شمال و غرب دشت مشاهده شد. این یافته‌ها بیانگر تشدید گرمایش و تغییر الگوی بارش است و ضرورت تقویت برنامه‌های سازگاری و مدیریت یکپارچه منابع آب را نشان می‌دهد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

MPI-ESM1-2-HR
CMhyd
تغییر عامل دلتا
اریبی میانگین
پیش‌نگری اقلیمی
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Assessing CMIP6 models for temperature and precipitation projections in the Mashhad Plain under SSP scenarios

نویسندگان English

Mahnaz Mazrooei 1
Ghodratolah Mohamadi 1
Hossien Hassanpour Darvishi 2
Hamidreza Rabieifar 1
1 Department of Civil Engineering, ST.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Department of Water Resources Management, ShQ.C., Islamic Azad University, Shahr-e Qods, Iran.
چکیده English

Assessing future temperature and precipitation changes locally is essential for water resources planning and climate change adaptation. This study evaluated Phase 6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models and projected temperature and precipitation in the Mashhad Plain. Daily observations from the Mashhad and Golmakan synoptic stations and outputs from seven general circulation models were analyzed for the 1990–2014 reference period. After annual aggregation, the models were assessed using root mean square error (RMSE), mean bias, and Pearson’s correlation coefficient, and the best model was selected based on the lowest error and bias and the highest correlation. Its outputs were downscaled using CMhyd and the delta change factor method under the “Middle of the Road” (SSP2-4.5) and “Fossil-fueled Development” (SSP5-8.5) pathways for 2026–2050, 2051–2075, and 2076–2100. MPI-ESM1-2-HR had the best overall performance. At Mashhad and Golmakan, precipitation correlations were 0.78 and 0.77, RMSE values were 12.46 and 10.34 mm, and mean biases were 9.34 and 8.87 mm, respectively. For temperature, correlations were 0.83 and 0.80, RMSE values were 2.23 and 2.11°C, and mean biases were 1.01 and 1.23°C. In the far future, temperature increased by about 3°C under SSP2-4.5 and by up to 5.6°C in some areas under SSP5-8.5. Annual precipitation also increased by 4.4% and 8.8%, respectively, with the greatest changes in the northern and western plain. These findings indicate intensified warming and altered precipitation patterns, emphasizing stronger adaptation programs and integrated water resources management.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

CMIP6
MPI-ESM1-2-HR
Mashhad Plain
SSP2-4.5
SSP5-8.5
CMhyd
delta change factor
climate projection
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