Yazd province, as one of the driest regions in Iran, faces an escalating crisis of water resources, which, beyond climatic challenges, is directly influenced by geopolitical and governance drivers.The present research was conducted with the aim of analyzing the strategic drivers affecting the future of water resources in Yazd province and formulating probable scenarios for the coming horizon. The research methodology is based on a futures studies approach, with an analytical-exploratory nature, utilizing MicMac software for structural analysis of cross-impacts. The data collection tool was an expert panel (12 people), leading to the identification of 30 key drivers within the framework of the STEEP model. The research findings indicated that the water resources system of Yazd suffers from structural instability, and variables such as Integrated Water Resources Management (P2), the economy of water-intensive industries (E1), and water diplomacy (P5) were identified as the most key strategic drivers. Analysis of direct, indirect, and potential relationship graphs indicates the system’s severe structural resistance to change and the extreme dependence of ecological sustainability on management and governance decisions. Finally, three scenarios were formulated: the restoration of the Qanat civilization (desirable), the continuation of fragility (static), and hydrological collapse (catastrophic). The results show that transitioning to the desirable state requires a paradigm shift from supply-oriented management to participatory governance and the rearrangement of the industrial economic structure based on the region’s ecological capacity.