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آینده پژوهی منابع آب استان یزد بر مبنای پیشران های ژئوپلیتیکی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه میبد، میبد، ایران.

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه میبد، میبد، ایران.

چکیده
استان یزد به عنوان یکی از خشک‌ترین مناطق ایران، با بحران فزاینده منابع آب روبروست که فراتر از چالش‌های اقلیمی، تحت تأثیر مستقیم پیشران‌های ژئوپلیتیکی و حکمرانی قرار دارد. پژوهش حاضر با هدف واکاوی پیشران‌های استراتژیک مؤثر بر آینده منابع آب استان یزد و تدوین سناریوهای محتمل در افق پیش‌رو انجام یافته است. روش تحقیق بر مبنای رویکرد آینده ‌پژوهی، با ماهیت تحلیلی- اکتشافی و با بهره ‌گیری از نرم ‌افزار MicMac جهت تحلیل ساختاری اثرات متقابل است. ابزار گردآوری داده ‌ها، پنل خبرگان (۱۲ نفر) و شناسایی ۳۰ پیشران کلیدی در قالب مدل STEEP بود. یافته ‌های پژوهش نشان داد که سیستم منابع آب یزد دارای بی ‌ثباتی ساختاری بوده و متغیرهای مدیریت یکپارچه منابع آب (P2)، اقتصاد صنایع آب ‌بر (E1) و دیپلماسی آب (P5) به عنوان کلیدی ‌ترین پیشران‌های استراتژیک شناسایی شدند. تحلیل گراف‌های روابط مستقیم، غیرمستقیم و بالقوه حاکی از مقاومت ساختاری شدید سیستم در برابر تغییرات و وابستگی شدید پایداری زیستی به تصمیمات مدیریتی و حاکمیتی است. در نهایت، سه سناریوی احیای تمدن کاریزی (مطلوب)، تداوم شکنندگی (ایستا) و سقوط هیدرولوژیک (فاجعه) تدوین گردید. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که گذار به وضعیت مطلوب، مستلزم تغییر پارادایم از مدیریت تأمین ‌محور به حکمرانی مشارکتی و بازآرایی ساختار اقتصاد صنعتی بر مبنای توان اکولوژیک منطقه است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Foresight of Water Resources in Yazd Province Based on Geo-political Drivers

نویسندگان English

Mohammad sadegh Talebi 1
seyyed reza hashemi 2
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Faculty of Humanities, Meybod University, Meybod, Iran.
2 MSc Student, Department of Geography, Faculty of Humanities, Meybod University, Meybod, Iran.
چکیده English

Yazd province, as one of the driest regions in Iran, faces an escalating crisis of water resources, which, beyond climatic challenges, is directly influenced by geopolitical and governance drivers.The present research was conducted with the aim of analyzing the strategic drivers affecting the future of water resources in Yazd province and formulating probable scenarios for the coming horizon. The research methodology is based on a futures studies approach, with an analytical-exploratory nature, utilizing MicMac software for structural analysis of cross-impacts. The data collection tool was an expert panel (12 people), leading to the identification of 30 key drivers within the framework of the STEEP model. The research findings indicated that the water resources system of Yazd suffers from structural instability, and variables such as Integrated Water Resources Management (P2), the economy of water-intensive industries (E1), and water diplomacy (P5) were identified as the most key strategic drivers. Analysis of direct, indirect, and potential relationship graphs indicates the system’s severe structural resistance to change and the extreme dependence of ecological sustainability on management and governance decisions. Finally, three scenarios were formulated: the restoration of the Qanat civilization (desirable), the continuation of fragility (static), and hydrological collapse (catastrophic). The results show that transitioning to the desirable state requires a paradigm shift from supply-oriented management to participatory governance and the rearrangement of the industrial economic structure based on the region’s ecological capacity.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Futures studies
water resources
geopolitical drivers
Yazd Province
MicMac
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دوره 7، شماره 1
شهریور 1405
صفحه 273-307

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