نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1
دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد سازه های آبی، گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران
2
دانشجوی دکتری آبیاری و زهکشی، گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه بیرجند، بیرجند، ایران.
3
دانشیار گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه بیرجند، بیرجند، ایران.
10.22077/jaaq.2025.8705.1091
چکیده
تغییر اقلیم بهعنوان یکی از چالشهای اساسی عصر حاضر، تأثیرات عمیقی بر منابع آب به ویژه در مناطق خشک و نیمهخشک از جمله شهرستان بیرجند در استان خراسان جنوبی دارد. باتوجهبه اینکه قناتها بهعنوان شاهکار مهندسی آب ایرانیان نقش حیاتی در استان خراسان جنوبی و از مهمترین منابع تأمین آب کشاورزی و شرب شناخته میشوند؛ بررسی و تحلیل اثرات تغییر اقلیم در دبی قناتها در دورههای آتی از اهمیت بالایی برخوردار است. در این پژوهش برای بررسی اثرات سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم بر دبی قناتها، مطالعه موردی بر روی دبی قناتهای شهرستان بیرجند واقع در استان خراسان جنوبی صورتگرفته است. در راستای این هدف بهمنظور ارزیابی اثرات تغییر اقلیم، 26 پارامتر خروجی مدل گردش عمومی جو کانادا (CanESM2 AR5) تحت سناریوی انتشار RCP4.5 بهعنوان پیشبینیکننده استفاده شده است. همچنین بهمنظور ریزمقیاس نمائی دادههای اقلیمی روزانه جهت تولید سناریوهای اقلیمی منطقهای از مدل SDSM استفاده گردید. برای بررسی تغییرات و پیشبینی دبی قناتها از شبکه عصبی فازی تطبیقی (ANFIS) بهره گرفته شد. نتایج پژوهش حاکی از سیر نزولی و افت دبی قناتها طی سالهای آینده تا سال 2050میباشد. این کاهش دبی میتواند پیامدهای جدی نظیر کاهش تولیدات کشاورزی، تأثیر منفی بر اقتصاد محلی و افزایش تنشهای آبی که ممکن است منجر به مهاجرت روستاییان به شهرها شود، بهدنبال داشته باشد. به منظور مقابله با این چالشها و کاهش آثار منفی ناشی از کاهش دبی قناتها، ضروری است که برنامههای جامع مدیریت منابع آب تدوین شود که به تغییرات اقلیمی توجه داشته و بهرهوری مصرف آب در بخشهای مختلف را افزایش دهد
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
Investigating the Impact of Climate Change on Qanat Discharge
)A Case Study of Qanats in Birjand County(
نویسندگان [English]
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zahra Akhondi
1
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Amir Khayat
2
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Mostafa Yaghoobzadeh
3
1
MSc graduate in Hydraulic Structures, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran.
2
PhD student of Irrigation and Drainage, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran.
3
Associate Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran.
چکیده [English]
Climate change, as one of the fundamental challenges of the present era, has profound effects on water resources, especially in arid and semi-arid regions, including Birjand County. Qanats, as a masterpiece of Iranian water engineering, have played a vital role in South Khorasan Province and are known as the most important sources of agricultural and drinking water supply; studying and analyzing the effects of climate change on the discharge of qanats in the future is of great importance. In this study, the effects of climate change scenarios on the discharge of qanats in Birjand County, located in South Khorasan Province, have been investigated. In order to assess the effects of climate change, 26 output parameters of the Canadian General Circulation Model under the RCP4.5 emission scenario have been used as predictors. And the SDSM model was used to downscale daily climate data to produce regional climate scenarios. An adaptive neural network (ANFIS) was used to study changes and predict the discharge of qanats. The results of the study indicate a downward trend and decrease in the flow of qanats in the coming years until 2050. This decrease in flow can have serious consequences such as a decrease in local agricultural production and an increase in water tensions that may lead to the migration of rural people to cities. In order to address these challenges and reduce the negative effects of the decrease in the flow of qanats, it is necessary to develop comprehensive water resources management plans.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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Qanats
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Water Resources Management
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Fuzzy Neural Network
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Birjand City
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Climate Change
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