Forecasting The Water Level of Baldeh Qanat in Ferdows Using Time Series Methods

Kosravi, Shaghayegh; Khozeimeh Nejad, Hossein; Khayat, Amir; Akhoondi, Zahra

doi:10.22077/jaaq.2025.9039.1104

Forecasting The Water Level of Baldeh Qanat in Ferdows Using Time Series Methods

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Shaghayegh Kosravi ¹

Hossein Khozeimeh nejad ²

amir khayat ³

zahra Akhoondi ⁴

¹ PhD student in Water Resources, Department of Water Science and Engineering, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran.

² Associate Professor, Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Univercity of Birjand, Iran

³ PhD student in Irrigation and Drainage, Department of Water Science and Engineering, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran.

⁴ Graduated with an MSc in Hydraulic Structures from the University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran.

https://doi.org/10.22077/jaaq.2025.9039.1104

Abstract

Objective: Groundwater stands as a critical water source for diverse purposes, encompassing drinking, agriculture, and industrial operations, thus playing a vital role in fulfilling societal needs. Given its paramount importance, extensive quantitative and qualitative research is consistently undertaken annually. This study aims to forecast the discharge rate of the Baladeh Ferdows Qanats (traditional underground aqueducts).

Method and Data: This research employs fundamental time series analysis techniques, specifically Autoregressive (AR), Moving Average (MA), and combined Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models. The data analyzed were sourced from the Agricultural Jihad Department of South Khorasan Province, Birjand. After assessing data stationarity, the data were rendered stationary through differencing with a lag of 1.

Conclusion: To validate the selected model, Autocorrelation Function (ACF) and Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) plots were examined. Ultimately, the AR(2) model was identified as the most suitable model for predicting the discharge rate of the Baladeh Qanat, based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and utilizing Minitab software. This model was then used to project discharge fluctuations for the subsequent 10 years. Considering the anticipated significant decline in discharge, proactive decision-making for effective water resource management in this region is imperative.

Keywords: Qanat, Akaike Information Criterion, Stationarity, Autocorrelation.

Keywords

Qanat

Akaike Information Criterion

Stationarity

Autocorrelation

Subjects

ًQanat and aquifer

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