Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1 Ph.D. Student of Hydrogeology, Faculty of Geosciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Khuzestan, Iran.
2 Associate Professor of Hydrology, Faculty of Geosciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Khuzestan, Iran.
3 Professor of Hydrogeology, Faculty of Geosciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Khuzestan, Iran.
Abstract
Rapid population growth combined with socio-economic development and climate change have caused major problems worldwide. The decline in water resources in arid and semi-arid regions is an example of these problems because in recent years, rainfall has decreased and socio-economic activities have increased. This situation has led to water stress and the need for water resource management in the Khorramabad watershed. Therefore, in this study, the effects of climate change on water resources in different scenarios were investigated using ANFIS and MODFLOW models. First, the current conditions of existing surface and groundwater resources were simulated monthly using ANFIS and MODFLOW models. Then, the climate change, ANFIS, and MODFLOW models were combined. After combining the models, the status of surface and groundwater resources in the future (2025-2060) was investigated using the results of SSP scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP 2-4.5, and SSP 5-8.5). In SSP scenarios, the annual average precipitation decreases and the annual average minimum and maximum temperatures increase. Based on the results of combining SSP scenarios with ANFIS and MODFLOW models, the annual average river discharge, groundwater level, and aquifer storage under SSP scenarios decrease compared to the average of the base period. The results showed that due to climate change and in SSP scenarios, agricultural water supply will be problematic. By implementing the irrigation plan, a large part of the agricultural water requirement under climate change conditions will be met. Also, in SSP scenarios, compared to the current irrigation method, groundwater level drop will decrease and aquifer storage will increase.
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