Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1 Iran- birjand
2 PHD.Student
3 Department of Water Science and Engineering, University of Birjand
Abstract
Climate change, as one of the fundamental challenges of the present era, has profound effects on water resources, especially in arid and semi-arid regions, including Birjand County. Qanats, as a masterpiece of Iranian water engineering, have played a vital role in South Khorasan Province and are known as the most important sources of agricultural and drinking water supply; studying and analyzing the effects of climate change on the discharge of qanats in the future is of great importance. In this study, the effects of climate change scenarios on the discharge of qanats in Birjand County, located in South Khorasan Province, have been investigated. In order to assess the effects of climate change, 26 output parameters of the Canadian General Circulation Model under the RCP4.5 emission scenario have been used as predictors. And the SDSM model was used to downscale daily climate data to produce regional climate scenarios. An adaptive neural network (ANFIS) was used to study changes and predict the discharge of qanats. The results of the study indicate a downward trend and decrease in the flow of qanats in the coming years until 2050. This decrease in flow can have serious consequences such as a decrease in local agricultural production and an increase in water tensions that may lead to the migration of rural people to cities. In order to address these challenges and reduce the negative effects of the decrease in the flow of qanats, it is necessary to develop comprehensive water resources management plans.
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